The recent World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, may have once again underscored the gulf between the haves and have nots. A new survey by the forum predicts major job disruption and churn across industries, most concentrated in routine white collar office functions.
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The recent World Economic Forum held in Davos, Switzerland, may have once again underscored the gulf between the haves and have nots. A new survey by the forum predicts major job disruption and churn across industries, most concentrated in routine white collar office functions, as the world moves forward in what is now the beginning of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
The report, “The Future of Jobs,” polled chief human resources officers of today's largest employers to imagine how jobs in their industry will change from now until 2020.
Among the findings: the global workforce is expected to experience significant churn, with a loss of 7.1 million jobs in areas such as office and administrative roles from 2015-20 and a gain of 2 million jobs in the computer, mathematics, architecture and engineering fields.
Among the drivers of job function changes are developments in previously disjointed fields like artificial intelligence, machine learning, robotics, nanotechnology, 3D printing, genetics and biotechnology, which now are building on and amplifying each other.
“We also find that the average respondents expect that the impact for nearly all drivers will occur within the next five years, highlighting the urgency for adaptive action today,” the report said.
That means trying to adjust to the fact that 65% of children entering primary school today will end up in completely new types of jobs that don't yet exist.
“In such a rapidly evolving landscape, the ability to anticipate and prepare for future skills requirements, job content and the aggregate effect on employment is increasingly critical for businesses, governments and individuals in order to fully seize the opportunities presented by these trends — and to mitigate undesirable outcomes,” the report said.
Two types of jobs stood out in the survey as being in high demand in the future. First is data analysts, who can make sense of the “torrent of data” generated by technological disruptions. The second is specialized sales representatives, who will need to be able to explain their complex offerings to all sorts of clients.
And if recruiting for specialized jobs isn't already difficult enough in Maine and other areas of the country, the report found that competition for skilled workers for in-demand jobs in computers, mathematics, architecture and engineering will be fierce. In addition, with skill demand changing so quickly, educators and companies have to be nimble in absorbing the changes in their training and trying to get out ahead of them.
As the report notes, “Across nearly all industries, the impact of technology and other changes is shortening the shelf-life of employees' existing skill sets.”
Another surprise coming down the road: by 2020 more than one-third of the desired core skill sets in most occupations will be for skills not yet considered crucial to today's jobs. Social skills such as persuasion, emotional intelligence and teaching others will be valued more than narrower technical skills like programming or operating equipment. That translates into technical skills needing to be supplemented with social and collaboration skills.
Many survey respondents were aware of their current planning limitations for disruptive change and its implications on their workers. Only 53% said they were reasonably or highly confident about their organization's future workforce strategy to handle the shifts.
The study recommends making better use of the accumulated experience of older workers and building an “ageless workforce.” Another approach is to partner with public institutions and the education sector. The report says companies will also have to reinvent the human resources function, use data analytics, diversity talent, leverage flexible work arrangements, rethink education, incentivize lifelong learning and establish cross-industry and public-private collaboration.
