🔒Nonprofits / social services: ‘Hopeful’ signs have turned to uncertainty

Last year in Mainebiz, Yellow Light Breen, president and CEO of Maine Development Foundation, was featured in a photo holding the “Hopeful” sign (produced by artist Charlie Hewitt). It summed up how Breen approached the year. But his sentiment has shifted. “Last year, I expressed a supremely hopeful outlook — due to Maine’s strong economic trajectory, attractive quality of place and pivotal opportunities transforming heritage sectors and rural development,” Breen says. “This year, the hope remains but definitely tempered by uncertainty in the larger economy. The combined effects of a shrinking U.S. labor force, tariff uncertainty (some probably overturned in court) and underfunded health care and health care job cuts will push the nation and Maine towards recession.” He anticipates that the Fed would “move aggressively to engineer a soft landing” by reducing interest rates and “unsticking” the housing market, helping ease the situation. Maine Development Fund’s annual “Measures of Growth” report offered a mixed report on Maine’s economy. The report showed “major progress on broadband connectivity,” combined with progress on “growing and upskilling” the workforce and fostering startups and innovation. But the report also cited several areas for improvement: child care, education and mental health related to kids; steep housing costs and their impact on developing a workforce; and high construction costs, which have been fueled by tariffs and labor shortages.

Nonprofit outlook

Nonprofits had a particularly hard past year, he notes. “2025 was a brutal year for many nonprofits due to eliminated, delayed or unknown federal funding. 2026 could be even more challenging as longer-term policy shifts take hold,” he says. “Creative combinations among nonprofits will be necessary for critical services to survive. I expect Maine philanthropy will take a leadership role; and MDF can help shape that creativity in economic and community development.”