Out of nearly 1,800 business leaders nationwide surveyed by JPMorgan Chase for its 2023 Annual Business Leaders Outlook Survey, the vast majority expect a recession this year.
Researchers surveyed leaders across various industries online from Nov. 14-22, including representatives of small businesses (defined as having annual revenues between $100,000 and $20 million) and midsize businesses (with annual revenues between $20 million and $500 million).
The findings, released Thursday, show that 65% of midsize businesses and 61% of small businesses expect a recession in the year ahead.
At midsize businesses, the proportion of leaders optimistic about the global economy dropped to 8% from 34% a year ago, while the percentage of those optimistic about the global economy fell to 22% from 50% at the start of 2022.
Conversely, nearly half of all small businesses, which are less likely to have exposure to national and international markets, expressed optimism for the national and global economy, which is similar to last year’s barometer.
Recession concerns come as businesses nationwide continue to combat inflation, with 91% of midsize businesses expecting inflation challenges this year.
In addition, 45% of small businesses surveyed cite inflation as a top challenge for the year ahead, up from 20% a year ago.
Asked about the situation in Maine, JPMorgan Chase’s Michael Griffin told Mainebiz that “Maine is a great state for everything, including business, and this past year Maine’s economy continued its steady growth despite some very real challenges.”
Griffin, a Portland-based relationship executive for middle-market banking and specialized industries, leads a two-person commercial team for JPMorgan Chase in Maine.
He also said that while labor remains a concern for Maine businesses, he’s seen a shift in employers looking to better engage their current workforce and find more rewarding jobs for employees.
“These employers are leveraging unique tactics like job swaps and identifying transferable skills to redeploy their own people into needed roles, which in turn helps to decrease attrition, recognize individual performance and build culture,” Griffin said.
More information
Find the full JPMorgan report here. And keep an eye out for the 2023 Economic Forecast edition of Mainebiz out Monday, Jan. 9.