Tariffs “were a rollercoaster ride last year, and that rollercoaster does not seem to be easing up at all this year,” Maine State Economist Amanda Rector told a Mainebiz forum on Wednesday.
After ever-changing tariffs in 2025, Maine State Economist Amanda Rector expects the U.S. economy to be dogged by continued uncertainty this year amid workforce shortages and concerns over a widening wealth gap.
Tariffs “were a rollercoaster ride last year, and that rollercoaster does not seem to be easing up at all this year,” she told a Mainebiz forum on Wednesday.
Rector predicts “additional turmoil” after a U.S. Supreme Court ruling, expected any day and as soon as today, about the legality of tariffs imposed by the Trump administration under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.
If the court rules against import taxes imposed under the 1977 law, any that are overturned could later be reimposed using other mechanisms, creating “additional turmoil,” she cautioned.
Country and product rates and exemptions also “continue to change on short notice,” Rector said.
More than 280 people registered for the Mainebiz “Five on the Future” event, held at the DoubleTree by Hilton in South Portland. Rector was the keynote speaker and moderated a panel of industry leaders.
Maine's top economist said immigration has come to a “screeching halt,” with significant implications for workforce shortages that could push up wages and prices.
Other areas of concern include the lack of reliable federal data and disparities in consumer sentiment between higher- and lower-income households in what is often referred to as the “K-shaped” economy. Related to that is the fact that a lot of the stock market gains in the second half of 2025 were driven by a "small number" of AI-involved firms, she said.
On the plus side, Rector pointed to signs that small business optimism may be "starting to peak through."
