House GOP health bill would add 24 million uninsured, save $337 billion

COLLINS PHOTO COURTESY / MEDILL DC, FLICKR, KING PHOTO COURTESY / U.S. NAVAL WAR COLLEGE, FLICKR U.S. Sens. Susan Collins and Angus King stated Monday that a Congressional Budget Office report on the House Republican bill to replace the Affordable Care Act raises enough troubling issues to slow the House's repeal-and-replace effort.

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By James McCarthy

Maine U.S. Sens. Susan Collins and Angus King both voiced concern over the Congressional Budget Office's conclusion that the House Republican plan to replace the Affordable Care Act would increase the number of people without health insurance by 24 million by 2026 but would reduce federal budget deficits by $337 million over the same period.

The CBO's 37-page analysis stated that the American Health Care Act proposed by House Republicans would result in 14 million more uninsured Americans next year than under the current ACA. The CBO estimated that 52 million would be uninsured under the House GOP plan in 2026, compared to 28 million who would lack insurance that year under the ACA. The CBO has produced independent analyses of budgetary and economic issues to support the congressional budget process since 1975.

The largest savings would come from reductions in Medicaid and from the elimination of the ACA’s subsidies for nongroup health insurance, the CBO reported.

The largest costs would come from repealing many of the changes the ACA made to the Internal Revenue Code and from the creation of a new tax credit for health insurance.

Other CBO findings:

The GOP House plan would “tend to increase average premiums in the nongroup market prior to 2020 and lower average premiums thereafter” relative to the ACA.
“For many lower-income people, the new tax credits under the legislation would tend to be smaller than the premium tax credits under current law.”
“Under the legislation, premiums for older people could be five times larger than those for younger people in many states, but the size of tax credits for older people would only be twice the size of the credits for younger people.”
Medicare spending under the House GOP plan would increase by $43 billion over 2018-2016 due to the increased number of uninsured people and decreased number of people with Medicaid coverage relative to the ACA.

Reaction to the CBO's findings

The New York Times reported that the Trump administration rejected the CBO’s conclusions, the Health and Human Services Secretary Tom Price stating that the CBO report was incomplete because it did not take into account regulatory steps he intends to take as well as other GOP legislation related to the repeal and replacement of the ACA.

Maine’s two U.S. senators cited the CBO’s findings as sufficient reason for House Republicans to slow their repeal-and-replace efforts.

U.S. Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, who introduced an alternative ACA replacement bill earlier this year called the "Patient Freedom Act” that is cosponsored by U.S. Sen. Bill Cassidy, R-La., issued the following statement:

"The CBO estimate that millions of Americans could lose their health insurance coverage if the House bill were to become law is cause for alarm. It should prompt the House to slow down and reconsider certain provisions of the bill.

"This is an extremely important debate with significant implications for millions of Americans. We need to spend the time necessary to get this right.

"I also urge my colleagues in both houses to take a look at the legislation I have introduced with Sen. Bill Cassidy, which would expand access to health care coverage, rather than contract it."

U.S. Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, issued this statement:

“We knew all along this was a bad bill. The CBO’s score confirms it. Fourteen million people will lose their health insurance next year under this proposal — and 24 million will lose it by 2026. Look around at your friends, your neighbors, your family and your loved ones. This bill is going to cost someone you know their health insurance.

“I hope this report will be a wake-up call to those who are breathlessly pushing this misguided proposal forward, and I make a plea to them — on behalf of the tens of millions of Americans who will be hurt by this bill — abandon this approach and let’s work together to fix the Affordable Care Act.”