Maine labor outlook optimistic after influx of new residents
Courtesy / Maine Department of Labor
Rising in-migration offsets some of the loss of the working-age population of current residents, according to the Maine Department of Labor.
Contrary to past trends that saw people moving out of Maine, the pandemic brought more people to the state, which could help stabilize the labor force over the coming decade, according to the Maine Department of Labor’s Workforce Outlook to 2030.
The 10-year outlook, highlighting demographic trends in employment, is published every two years in conjunction with national projections from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Data is not yet available, but it appears the pattern of in-migration continued in 2022.
The remote work revolution and increased number of retired people have contributed to an influx of new residents, as more people have the flexibility to choose where they want to live. As a result, rising in-migration offsets some of the loss of the current working-age population.
“It is unclear at this point how long this pattern will continue and at what magnitude,” the report says. “It is quite possible that in-migration will outweigh the constraints of the existing population for several more years, stabilizing the size of the labor force.”
Net-migration, which is the difference between the number of people moving into and out of the state, has tended to be cyclical for Maine. During and shortly after recessions, more people move out than in. During expansionary periods, more people move in than out, as was the case in the five years preceding the pandemic.
The previous outlook, published in 2020 for the decade from 2018 to 2028, indicated that employment in Maine was likely to peak between 2022 and 2024, with an overall decrease of 15,800 employees between 2018 to 2028.
The new forecast projects that employment could increase by 15,700 from 2020 to 2030.
More of the large baby boom generation will be retired in 2030 than in 2028, but the recent influx of working-age people has partially offset aging, the report says.
However, it adds, it's likely that employment will peak sometime before 2030, unless in-migration continues at a high rate.
Maine’s working-age population is impacted by two primary factors — a decreasing number of births and the aging population that results. Over the last five decades, fewer births left the state with more people reaching the age of retirement than young people reaching working age.
Productivity improvements
Since the Maine's population is not expected to change significantly, modestly decreasing employment — because more people are retired — should be offset by increased productivity, so the situation should not be considered a crisis, the report says.
However, two industries stand out as exceptions.
The first is businesses that cater to summer tourism that rely on a young, seasonal workforce.
“With fewer young people in the workforce, the recent staffing challenges many employers have faced are not likely to lessen without reorienting both how they staff their businesses and how they provide services to meet demand,” the report says.
The second is nursing care facilities, home health agencies and others that care for a rising elderly population.
“Low reimbursement rates have put them at a disadvantage competing for staff,” the report says. “It seems some policy changes will need to be made to restore balance to this important industry.”
Other industries, such as construction, professional and business services, and manufacturing businesses recovered more quickly from the pandemic and now exceed pre-pandemic levels.
As a result, the projected change in jobs is uneven across sectors.
“Much of expected growth is in sectors that experienced the sharpest job losses in 2020, including leisure and hospitality, health care and social assistance, and education,” the report says. “Construction jobs tend to move up and down with the business cycle and were at a high point in 2020, partly driven by an influx of people to the state from more congested areas.”
To view the full report, click here.
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