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James Marple of TD Bank
January 21, 2022
TD Bank economist tells conference he sees ‘above-trend’ growth for US
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A slide presented by TD Bank economist James Marple shows why he believes American consumers have spending power in 2022.
Looking at the year ahead for the U.S. economy, TD Bank’s James Marple on Thursday said he expects last year’s solid rebound to remain strong, driven in part by consumer demand.
“We continue to see good evidence that demand is strong, and that the economy will continue to grow at an above-trend rate,” said Marple, a Toronto-based senior economist and managing director with TD Bank, at the Maine Real Estate & Development Association's annual forecast conference in Portland.
The increased demand translates into expected growth for the U.S. economy “well north” of 2%.
Marple also sees “a lot of gas left in the tank” in terms of households’ potential to spend as the economy recover in the midst of the pandemic. However, he did acknowledge the effects of the country's supply constraints.
That’s particularly a problem in the automobile sector, he said, where inventory shortages prompted a sharp increase in prices last year, starting with used vehicles.
In real estate, Marple said TD Bank’s outlook — particularly for the residential market — is “pretty positive." That's despite low inventories of houses for sale, as well as increasing mortgage rates and affordability challenges that slow demand.
As lumber costs come down, however, he expects construction activity to pick up and add to the country's housing stock.
In another sector, Marple said that continued growth in warehousing due to more online shopping “suggests a positive outlook for commercial real estate more broadly.”
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