August 6, 2007
Warming trend | A new report warns of the economic impact of climate change in Maine
By Zack Anchors
Several of Maine's traditional natural resource industries have faced major challenges in recent years, but according to a new report by the Union of Concerned Scientists, those industries are due for even more drastic changes in the coming decades.
Rather than overfishing or globalization getting the blame, these coming transformations will be caused by the effect of global warming on Maine's environment, the group says. UCS, a Cambridge, Mass.-based advocacy group, claims that a changing climate in Maine will have widespread economic implications on businesses from ski resorts and snowmobiling outfitters to loggers and insurance providers.
"This report is essentially an informational device ˆ it's here to help people assess the
potential impact of climate change on several sectors," says Tom Tietenberg, an economics professor at Colby College in Waterville, and one of roughly 60 experts who co-authored the report. "The implication, both moral and economic, is that it makes sense to do something now."
The global warming warnings aren't new, but the recently released UCS report, "Climate Impacts on the Northeast," is among the first to directly address the impact of climate change in Maine. The report includes sections on each state in the region, including Maine, and describes two possible scenarios: One based on a higher global output of carbon emissions, a chemical that contributes to global warming, and another based on a reduced level of emissions. In the first scenario, the report offers several jarring predictions, including that the mountains of western Maine would be the only region in the Northeast suitable to sustain a skiing industry; that much of Maine's spruce- and fir-dominated forests would give way to plant and animal species better suited to warmer climates; that lobster could become much more widespread on Maine's coast while also being more prone to disease; and that Maine's farmers might be able to plant new warmer-weather crops but will likely need to invest more in irrigation equipment to overcome an increased frequency of short-term drought.
University of Southern Maine marine scientist Lewis Incze, another co-author of the report, says that scientists collaborating on the report brought together the latest and most sophisticated research available and made projections of warming's impact on a select few Maine industries based on that information. He says that while the team was able to make some concrete projections about some sectors, such as agriculture, it was too soon to make clear predictions in other sectors, such as marine industries. Incze says that in predicting the future of Maine's marine environment dozens of factors need to be taken into account, ranging from altering ocean currents to changing salinity levels.
"You'd expect that in a warmer Gulf of Maine you'd have species from warmer climates moving up the coast," says Incze. "The tricky thing is they don't all move at the same pace. We can predict some trends that a warmer climate might produce, but you can't predict what this new community will look like or behave like. Marine systems are really complex."
"Lousy winters"
Outdoor recreation is projected to be one of the sectors of Maine's economy most directly effected by warming. Under the higher-emissions scenario, snow-cover would be roughly half of what it is now by late in this century. Maine's snowmobiling industry, which contributes around $3 billion to the state's economy each year, would see the length of its season drop 70% by mid-century, to around 30 days.
According to Bob Meyers, executive director of the Maine Snowmobiling Association, people in his industry aren't worried. He acknowledges climate change may be a problem, but he says each season has always been different, and snowmobilers are used to putting up with periods of poor weather cycles.
"We need snow to function and we need cold weather to function," says Meyers. "But there were lousy winters in the 70s and lousy winters in the 80s. And last year's winter was terrible ˆ– it hurt a lot of businesses and cost a lot of people their jobs."
But the most practical way for industries and individuals to confront the challenges of global warming, the report argues, is to reduce carbon emissions. At Shawnee Peak in Bridgton, Marketing Director Melissa Rock reports that the ski resort has already dealt with the effects of climate change and is taking steps to prepare for even larger impacts. She says that every year the business relies more on its snowmaking capacity to make up for what Mother Nature won't provide. To deal with the problem, which Rock expects to worsen, the resort recently bought new snowmaking equipment and is exploring new technologies would enable it to make snow at warmer temperatures.
"We completely depend on snowmaking," says Rock. "And the window for making snow seems to keep getting smaller and smaller."
Shawnee Peak's experiences are mirrored in UCS's projections for Maine's ski industry. It predicts that while Maine ski resorts may benefit from the demise of skiing in states to the south, they will become increasingly dependent on snowmaking, causing operational costs to rise.
One aspect of warming's impact that remains hard to predict, says Tietenberg, is the adaptability of Maine businesses to the new conditions that develop over the next century. "We don't know how the paper industry might adapt to the changes in the makeup of our forests or how the insurance industry will adapt to increasing storm surge," he says.
And, Tietenberg admits, it's possible that global warming could bring substantial advantages to some Maine industries, while hurting others.
"Some of this may turn out to have very negative effects and there may turn out to be some benefits," he says.
Still, both Incze and Tietenberg emphasize that the overall impact of global warming is likely to be negative, harming and altering many of Maine's most precious natural resources and the industries that depend on them.
Rather than overfishing or globalization getting the blame, these coming transformations will be caused by the effect of global warming on Maine's environment, the group says. UCS, a Cambridge, Mass.-based advocacy group, claims that a changing climate in Maine will have widespread economic implications on businesses from ski resorts and snowmobiling outfitters to loggers and insurance providers.
"This report is essentially an informational device ˆ it's here to help people assess the
potential impact of climate change on several sectors," says Tom Tietenberg, an economics professor at Colby College in Waterville, and one of roughly 60 experts who co-authored the report. "The implication, both moral and economic, is that it makes sense to do something now."
The global warming warnings aren't new, but the recently released UCS report, "Climate Impacts on the Northeast," is among the first to directly address the impact of climate change in Maine. The report includes sections on each state in the region, including Maine, and describes two possible scenarios: One based on a higher global output of carbon emissions, a chemical that contributes to global warming, and another based on a reduced level of emissions. In the first scenario, the report offers several jarring predictions, including that the mountains of western Maine would be the only region in the Northeast suitable to sustain a skiing industry; that much of Maine's spruce- and fir-dominated forests would give way to plant and animal species better suited to warmer climates; that lobster could become much more widespread on Maine's coast while also being more prone to disease; and that Maine's farmers might be able to plant new warmer-weather crops but will likely need to invest more in irrigation equipment to overcome an increased frequency of short-term drought.
University of Southern Maine marine scientist Lewis Incze, another co-author of the report, says that scientists collaborating on the report brought together the latest and most sophisticated research available and made projections of warming's impact on a select few Maine industries based on that information. He says that while the team was able to make some concrete projections about some sectors, such as agriculture, it was too soon to make clear predictions in other sectors, such as marine industries. Incze says that in predicting the future of Maine's marine environment dozens of factors need to be taken into account, ranging from altering ocean currents to changing salinity levels.
"You'd expect that in a warmer Gulf of Maine you'd have species from warmer climates moving up the coast," says Incze. "The tricky thing is they don't all move at the same pace. We can predict some trends that a warmer climate might produce, but you can't predict what this new community will look like or behave like. Marine systems are really complex."
"Lousy winters"
Outdoor recreation is projected to be one of the sectors of Maine's economy most directly effected by warming. Under the higher-emissions scenario, snow-cover would be roughly half of what it is now by late in this century. Maine's snowmobiling industry, which contributes around $3 billion to the state's economy each year, would see the length of its season drop 70% by mid-century, to around 30 days.
According to Bob Meyers, executive director of the Maine Snowmobiling Association, people in his industry aren't worried. He acknowledges climate change may be a problem, but he says each season has always been different, and snowmobilers are used to putting up with periods of poor weather cycles.
"We need snow to function and we need cold weather to function," says Meyers. "But there were lousy winters in the 70s and lousy winters in the 80s. And last year's winter was terrible ˆ– it hurt a lot of businesses and cost a lot of people their jobs."
But the most practical way for industries and individuals to confront the challenges of global warming, the report argues, is to reduce carbon emissions. At Shawnee Peak in Bridgton, Marketing Director Melissa Rock reports that the ski resort has already dealt with the effects of climate change and is taking steps to prepare for even larger impacts. She says that every year the business relies more on its snowmaking capacity to make up for what Mother Nature won't provide. To deal with the problem, which Rock expects to worsen, the resort recently bought new snowmaking equipment and is exploring new technologies would enable it to make snow at warmer temperatures.
"We completely depend on snowmaking," says Rock. "And the window for making snow seems to keep getting smaller and smaller."
Shawnee Peak's experiences are mirrored in UCS's projections for Maine's ski industry. It predicts that while Maine ski resorts may benefit from the demise of skiing in states to the south, they will become increasingly dependent on snowmaking, causing operational costs to rise.
One aspect of warming's impact that remains hard to predict, says Tietenberg, is the adaptability of Maine businesses to the new conditions that develop over the next century. "We don't know how the paper industry might adapt to the changes in the makeup of our forests or how the insurance industry will adapt to increasing storm surge," he says.
And, Tietenberg admits, it's possible that global warming could bring substantial advantages to some Maine industries, while hurting others.
"Some of this may turn out to have very negative effects and there may turn out to be some benefits," he says.
Still, both Incze and Tietenberg emphasize that the overall impact of global warming is likely to be negative, harming and altering many of Maine's most precious natural resources and the industries that depend on them.
Most Recent
Most Recent
Comments