What's in store for the future?
Questions about Maine's economy and where it's headed are asked throughout the year.
But, like we always do in January, Mainebiz takes a closer look at what's ahead for businesses and the economy in general. We asked five prominent economists statewide for feedback and they gave our online editor, Dylan Martin, their predictions, insights, opinions and, at times, blunt assessment.
Here's what we know at this point: Maine's economy will likely continue to grow, albeit at what for some has become an all-too-familiar, plodding pace. Pockets of Maine — including southern Maine, Bangor and Lewiston-Auburn areas — will outpace much of the state, reinforcing the notion that there are “two Maines.”
“Economic growth in the Portland area will continue to outpace the rest of the state, reflecting a national trend of urban service-based economies growing faster than rural areas that aren't mining oil and gas,” says Joel Johnson, economist at the Maine Center for Economic Policy.
Mainers are used to being patient — a trait that will again come in handy in 2015.
“The continuing national recovery will slowly add to Maine's job growth, though the rate of growth will be far less than the national average,” Charles Lawton, chief economist at Planning Decisions Inc., says.
In the housing market, state Economist Amanda Rector says 2015 should be a “pretty good year,” especially in southern Maine and along the coast.
Electricity and natural gas costs are expected to rise, according to Jonathan Reisman, associate professor of economics and public policy at the University of Maine Machias. He lays a share of the blame on the combination of the EPA, Democrats and what he calls “climate change warriors,” who are putting up regulatory barriers.
Charles Colgan, former professor of public policy and management at the University of Southern Maine's Muskie School of Public Service, offers this ray of hope: “Maine is becoming a state with more jobs than people, reversing its century-long status as a state with more people than jobs … This is uncharted territory for Maine and the rest of northern New England.”
Well said.
Elsewhere in this issue, Senior Writer James McCarthy catches up with Tom Welch, the retiring chairman of the Public Utilities Commission. He takes up a festering issue, that of the so-called natural gas bottleneck, saying it could prove to be a self-fulfilling prophecy. “If you don't solve the problem, you will reduce load, because you will lose your economic base. That would not be, in my view, a sensible or responsible way to address the problem,” Welch says.
Also for this issue, Jim made the trek to Rangeley to see the refurbished Rangeley Inn and meet the new owner. The take-away from the trip was that the inn seems to be back on solid footing, but Jim also took note of the sense of relief retailers in town felt, knowing the inn would again attract the out-of-town visitors on which so much of the economy depends. Not far away (as the crow flies, at least), Tom Hildreth, owner of Carrabassett Coffee, detailed recent expansion plans.
Whatever the outlook for the year, it's clear that some businesses are going to continue to invest. No matter what the economists say, there will always be entrepreneurs out there ready to launch a new idea — or give new life to an old one.
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