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May 22, 2013

Colgan: U.S. recovery two years ahead of Maine

Maine's recovery from recession will lag national trends by nearly two years, according to an economic forecast released today from the New England Economic Partnership.

The forecast, authored by Charlie Colgan, a professor of public policy and management at the Muskie School of Public Service, projects that Maine's economy will continue a slow climb out of the recession, gaining around 6,000 jobs by the end of 2014.

Maine lost about 28,000 jobs in the recession and has since recovered only around 3,000 jobs, which Colgan writes is far behind national trends.

The United States has recovered around 64%, or 5.6 million, of the jobs it lost through the recession compared with Maine's 11% recovery, which Colgan wrote is the "longest and most difficult of the postwar era."

Overall, the latest forecast pushes Maine's full recovery into the fourth quarter of 2016, which is five quarters later than Colgan had projected one year ago.

Faster recovery nationwide fuels Colgan's projection that the country will reach pre-recession employment levels in mid-2014.

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