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Updated: January 13, 2020 From the Editor

A year for optimism, but also some uncertainty

By Peter Van Allen

Each year Mainebiz asks as many business people as we can just what’s in store for the coming year.

We do this as an economic outlook delivered on several different platforms, including our Daily email, our annual “Five on the Future” panel in Portland and, here, in print. We’ve asked a range of leaders what they expect from Maine’s economy this year.

At the recent “Five on the Future” panel, Jeffrey Fuhrer, a senior economist at the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, said the Fed expects the economy to grow by 2.5%, but there are areas of concern. Tariffs, the slowing global economy and labor shortages are just a few of the factors that could affect the economy this year.

A year ago on these pages, the feedback we got included fears of a recession — we heard more than once that the cycle of growth was concluding. Ironically, a year later, we heard less concern about recession.

“At the moment, I tend to agree with most national projections that 2020 will be a year of growth, rather than the start of a recession,” Portland developer Chip Newell tells Mainebiz.

But we did hear more tangible tales of the impact of tariffs on construction materials and consumer goods. We are hearing about rising consumer debt and the impact that may have on the economy.

“With years of very strong U.S. auto sales, most consumers have upgraded vehicles as needed to holding onto late-model vehicles during the prior economic downturn,” David Libby, president and CEO of Town & Country Federal Credit Union, tells us.

In manufacturing sectors like boatbuilding, there is expected to be continued demand for custom products.

“I think that quality production builders such as Back Cove, Sabre, Hinckley and Southport — just to name a few — will continue to gain market share and there also seems to be some more interest in custom boatbuilding which has been very slow to gain traction since the great recession. I believe that all the service yards — big and small — are quite busy this winter and have been for a couple of years,” says JB Turner.

Our cover package, “20 on 20,” with business leaders from a variety of companies, organizations and nonprofits, starts on Page 12.

In another feature, “2020 visions,” Senior Writer Renee Cordes talked to 10 Maine leaders about their New Year’s resolutions. See Page 6.

Renee also talked to wealth management experts for their 2020 outlook. See Page 8.

For a look at the housing market forecast, see George Casey’s column on Page 11.

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