Annual growth report: Maine gets mixed marks

Courtesy / Maine Department of Transportation A Maine Department of Transportation crew works on a highway project. The state's transportation infrastructure, and particularly highway maintenance, got a Red Flag in the most recent "Measures of Growth" report.

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By Maureen Milliken

Maine gets high marks for its work on the environment, safety and forest growth, but is struggling in workforce, education, transportation infrastructure and health care, according to the Maine Economic Growth Council's "Measures of Growth Report", which was released Wednesday.

This is the 25th year of the report, which is a snapshot of how the state's economy, relative to its long-term goals, compares to other states and the United States as a whole.

The report tracks 27 indicators that represent Maine’s assets, ranging from cost of energy and health care, to air and water quality, to availability of broadband, safety of residents, food insecurity and money spent on research and development.

This year's report also issued "an urgent call to action" to the state to develop a long-term economic plan "to grow the state’s economy and make a high quality of life possible for all Mainers."

“The 'Measures of Growth' annual report has long provided valuable information about what we are doing right, where we need to improve, and the trends of progress or decline over time,” said Steve Von Vogt, chairman of the Maine Economic Growth Council. “However, in order to truly make meaningful, sustainable progress Maine must develop, commit to and implement a long-term strategy for growing the economy and establishing our state as a vibrant, desirable place to do business and raise a family.”

The results are data-driven and the report's approach is nonpartisan, said the council and the Maine Development Foundation, which administers the report.

"Measures of Growth is designed to be a resource for policy and decision makers at all levels, helping them to focus their efforts and understand the connections between the major issues affecting the state," the news release said.

Gold Stars, Red Flags

The report ranks the 27 indicators for "exceptional performance" or "needs attention." The state made progress on seven indicators, but lost ground versus the benchmark on seven others.

Gold stars were assigned for:

Safety – Maine’s crime rate is 40% below the national average;
Air quality – The number and severity of unhealthy or even moderate air quality days continues to decline and in 2018 were the lowest on record;
Water quality – The water quality of Maine rivers and streams remains far above the U.S. average;
Sustainable forest lands – The growth to harvest ratio increased between 2016 and 2017.

Red flags were assigned for:

Research and development expenditures – Total spending on R & D declined $25 million between 2015 and 2016, and Maine ranks 45th of the 50 states;
Fourth-grade reading and eighth-grade math scores – In 2017, 36% of 4th graders were proficient in reading, trailing the New England average by 7 points;
Working age population – Maine’s proportion of working age population continues to decline, and is below the national average;
Cost of health care – Maine’s health care spending remains at 17.8 percent of all personal expenditures since 2015, which is above the U.S. average and a full percentage point above the New England average;
Transportation infrastructure – In 2017, 33% of Maine’s most-traveled highways were graded “D” or “F."

“Maine’s future growth will come from building on our strengths, and expanding on the pockets of excellence that are often present even in the areas where we lag,” said Yellow Light Breen, president and CEO of Maine Development Foundation. Breen said the foundation looks forward to working with Gov. Janet Mills' administration and other policymakers, and business and community leaders "to develop, implement and maintain a comprehensive, long-term plan that delivers on this vision.”

The 27 indicators

The annual report also ranks the indicators for measurable growth toward the benchmark since last available data, no growth, or movement away from the benchmark. Specifically, here's what the 27 indicators found:

1. Gross Domestic Product – Maine’s Gross Domestic Product grew by 1.9% from 2016 to 2017, from $54.6 to $55.6 billion. GDP growth in Maine trailed the national average of 2.2% and surpassed the New England rate of 1.4%. [No growth]

2. Per-capita personal Income – From 2016 to 2017, per capita income in Maine grew by 3.7% to $46,455. Income grew in Maine at nearly the same rate as the U.S. and New England averages and slightly better than the EPSCoR average growth of 3.0%. [Growth}

3. Value added per worker – Value added per worker in Maine increased from $94,017 in 2016 to $96,729 in 2017. Worker productivity in Maine has been about 25% lower than the U.S. average for the past seven years. [No growth]

4. Employment – Maine total employment exceeded the pre-recession level for the first time in 2017, and another 4,500 jobs were added in 2018 for a total of 628,500 jobs. [Growth]

5. Poverty – Poverty in Maine dropped from 12.3% to 11.3% in 2017, below the pre-recession level of 12.2% in 2007. The national and New England poverty rates are still slightly above their pre-recession rates. [Growth]

6. Research and development expenditures – In 2016, Maine’s total spending on R&D was approximately $483 million, down from $508 million in 2015 and $757 million in 2009, the high point of the past decade. R&D spending in Maine represents 0.8% of total GDP, which ranks 45th of the 50 states. [Red Flag; movement away]

7. International exports – After declining from 2016 to 2017, Maine exports increased by 4.2% from 2017 to 2018, while U.S. exports increased by 7.6%. {Movement away}

8. Broadband connectivity – While 90% of Mainers are served by basic broadband — close to the national rate of 92% — only 30% have broadband subscriptions, compared with 53% nationally. About one in 10 Mainers (11%) subscribe to high speed broadband, compared with 44% nationwide. [Movement away]

9. Entrepreneurship – Maine jumped from a 50-state ranking of 37th on the early stage entrepreneurship index in 2016 to 6th in 2017. Maine’s strong 2017 performance was driven by the highest first-year survival rate in the country, 88%. [Growth]

10. Fourth Grade Reading Scores – In 2017, 36% of Maine fourth graders were proficient in reading, equal to the national average and trailing the New England average by seven points. [Red Flag; no growth]

11. Eighth Grade Math Scores – The proportion of Maine eighth graders proficient in math increased from 34% in 2007 to 40% in 2013 but has since fallen to 36% in 2017. Maine eighth grade math proficiency is two points above the national average but trails the New England rate by three percentage points. [Red Flag; no growth]

12. Post-secondary educational attainment – Maine’s post-secondary educational attainment improved from 40% in 2016 to 42% in 2017, just above the national average of 41%, but well below the New England average of 48%. [Growth]

13. Working age population – Maine’s working-age population percentage fell to 61% in 2017 from 61.5% in 2016 and 63.4% in 2010. In 2014, Maine’s proportion of working-age population fell below the U.S. average, which now stands at 61.8%. [Red Flag; movement away]

14. Cost of doing business – Maine’s cost of doing business index value has been stable at 110 since 2012. In 2017, Maine’s cost of doing business index ranked 8th highest in the U.S., up from 10th in 2015. [Movement away]

15. Cost of health care – In 2017, health care spending in Maine stood at 17.8% of all personal expenditures, above the 2007 rate of 16.3%, but at a stable level since 2015. Health care spending in New England dropped below the national average of 17.1%, and stood at 16.8%, a full percentage point below the Maine rate. [Red Glad; no growth]

16. Cost of energy – The industrial price of electricity in Maine declined slightly from 9.2 to 9.06 cents per kilowatt hour from 2017 to 2018, while the average New England price increased from 12.54 to 12.96 cents and the U.S. average increased from 6.88 to 6.93 cents. [No growth]

17. State and local tax burden – State and local tax burden is higher in Maine than the New England average, and has remained around 12% since 2009. Maine ranks 3rd highest of the 50 states in taxes as a percent of income and 14th highest in taxes paid per capita, about $5,200 in 2016. [No growth]

18. Transportation infrastructure – In 2017, two-thirds (67%) of Maine’s most-traveled highway miles were graded A, B or C, and 33% received grades of D or F. This was an improvement over 2016 but indicates a small decline since 2012. [Red Flag; no growth]

19. Safety – Maine’s crime rate in 2017, 16.3 per 1,000 residents, was 40% below the national rate of 27.5 and among the lowest of the 50 states. [Gold Star; no growth; this is a new category with this year's report.]

20. Housing affordability – Housing is more affordable in Maine than the national and Northeast averages. But after improving from 2007 to 2014, housing affordability in Maine has been declining slightly in each subsequent year. {Movement away]

21. Gender income disparity – After improving from 79% in 2014 and 2015 to 84% in 2016, women’s income as a percentage of men’s in Maine dropped to 82% in 2017. {Movement away]

22. Wellness and prevention – Nearly two-thirds of Maine adults — 65% — were overweight or obese in 2017. While Maine’s rate has grown slightly from 63% in 2007, it decreased in both 2016 and 2017, and is now two points below the national average of 67%. [Growth]

23. Health insurance coverage – In 2017, 91.9% of Mainers had health insurance, slightly above national average of 91.3%. An estimated 106,000 people in Maine do not have health insurance coverage. [No growth]

24. Food security – 14.4% of Maine households were food insecure in 2017, a substantial decline from 16.4% in 2016. Food insecurity in Maine is well above the U.S. (12.3%) and New England (11.4%) averages. [No growth]

25. Air quality – In 2018, there were 29 moderate air quality days and 3 days were rated unhealthy for sensitive groups, the lowest figures to date. [Gold Star; growth]

26. Water quality – Since 2006, Maine’s water quality has remained steady and well above national averages, with 95% of rivers and streams and 91% of lakes achieving category 1 or 2 (“good”) in 2016. [Gold Star; no growth]

27. Sustainable forest lands– Since 2010, Maine has maintained net forest growth to removals ratios slightly in favor of growth over harvest. The growth to harvest ratio rose slightly from 1.43 in 2016 to 1.47 in 2017. [Gold Star; no growth]