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January 6, 2011

Colgan: Job rebound to take three years

It will likely take two or three years for Maine's employment numbers to rebound to pre-recession levels, University of Southern Maine economist Charles Colgan predicted yesterday during his annual economic forecast.

Colgan, a professor at USM's Muskie School of Public Service and chair of the state's economic forecasting commission, told attendees at a breakfast forum yesterday that the recently passed federal cut on payroll tax for 2011 could help push job growth to pre-recession levels by mid-2013, the Bangor Daily News and The Associated Press reported. Colgan previously expected the state to return to its 2008 employment peak of 620,700 jobs by 2014. He predicted job growth to stem from three sectors: health care, professional and business services, and leisure and hospitality. (Yesterday, we asked if you agreed with Colgan's assessment -- see "Question of the week: Your take" below for your responses).

Business profits and number of hours worked have been on the rise, which usually triggers businesses to increase hiring, but so far job growth has been sluggish, Colgan said. Though cautiously optimistic, Colgan said the European debt crisis could impact American exports, and legal battles over mortgage companies' foreclosure practices could draw out the housing crisis.

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