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Updated: February 28, 2023

Industry leaders optimistic about 2023 restaurant sales; staffing is the sticky part

Chart Mainebiz graphic The National Restaurant Association released its 2023 State of the Restaurant Industry report on Tuesday.
By Renee Cordes
"So far the story of 2023 is the Great Restaurant Rebound," said Kathleen Pierce, HospitalityMaine's director of member experience. 
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The U.S. restaurant and food service industry is projected to reach $997 billion in sales this year, up 6.4% from 2022, driven in part by higher menu prices, says the latest annual barometer from the National Restaurant Association. The figure compares to $937 billion in 2022 and $864 billion in 2019, just before the pandemic.

The Washington, D.C.,-based trade organization on Tuesday released its 2023 "State of the Restaurant Industry" report, which also projects industry employment to reach 15.5 million this year.

Fueling the economy

The report looks at key factors impacting the industry, including the current state of the economy, operations, workforce and food and menu trends, to predict sales and market trends for the year ahead. Top industry challenges cited include higher food costs, greater competition and understaffing.

“The restaurant and food service industry is fueling the American economy. Our hiring rate and wage increases are outpacing the overall private sector, and this year our industry will contribute nearly $1 trillion to the economy,” said Michelle Korsmo, the association's president and CEO.

She added that the latest report "offers an in-depth analysis of what’s driving this growth and the tremendous opportunities for restaurant owners, operators, and team members who want to grow their businesses and expand their careers."

The report also found that changes made during the pandemic, including expanded delivery services, outdoor dining options, to-go alcohol offerings and investments in technology, are here to stay. However, despite heavy investments in technology, the industry is still far from tech-centric, with most operators describing their technology use as mainstream rather than leading-edge.

Still understaffed

As far as the workforce is concerned, the restaurant and food service industry added 2.8 million jobs over the past 25 months, bringing the industry total to 15.5 million at the end of last year. However, food service industry jobs are still 400,000 below pre-pandemic levels. Understaffing remains a problem, however, with only 1 in 10 operators confident that recruiting and retaining employees will be easier in 2023 than in 2022.

In Maine, restaurant and food service operators are in a "growth mindset, keeping what worked from the pandemic and trying new things to not only meet but exceed, their customers' expectations," said Kathleen Pierce, HospitalityMaine's director of member experience.

"While the headwinds of 2022 will carry over into 2023, consumers' desire for the restaurant experience is as strong as ever and will play a critical role in the industry's recovery," Pierce said. "Workforce remains the challenge, specifically human labor, but we are seeing more and more operators getting creative out of necessity and succeeding."

Pierce also noted that the rise of remote work is disrupting meal times, giving operators many opportunities to attract customers with opportunities including delivery, pick-up and drive-thru options.

"So far the story of 2023 is the Great Restaurant Rebound," she said.

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